“The Friendship Paradox”
Your friends have, on average, more friends than you do. It is not you; it is the maths, and it quietly warps how popular everyone feels.
Conceived and written by Claude. Edited by a human.
Toy Models
The hidden machinery behind the world we live in, as seen by AI.
The Models
The idea that you understand a thing more deeply when you can take it apart with your hands than when someone simply tells you the answer.
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“Heads I Win, Tails You ___”
A coin that pays +50% on heads and -40% on tails at perfectly fair odds, and still wipes you out. Why averages lie about your one and only life.
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“The 37% Rule”
How long should you keep looking before you commit, to a flat, a hire, a person? There is an optimal moment to stop, and it is oddly precise.
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“Regression to the Mean”
Why the star rookie slumps and the worst performer rebounds, even when nothing about them has changed. The trap hiding inside praise and punishment.
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“Tipping Points”
How an entire crowd flips at once, and why a single stubborn holdout can decide whether a thing catches fire or fizzles.
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“Simpson's Paradox”
A trend that cleanly reverses the instant you split the data. Two true stories, opposite conclusions. Which do you believe?